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Liverpool go into Sunday's Carling Cup final with very little to win and everything to lose.
With Cardiff styled as huge underdogs, there is an unwanted extra pressure on Kenny Dalglish and his team in the club's first final for five years. If Liverpool win, Monday's back-page headlines will all be focused on the north London derby. Lose, and it'll be trouble at t'mill.
While there may be a sense that the hard work has already been done (beating Man City in the semi-final was undoubtedly a tougher test), the Reds need look no further than last year's runners-up to see how defeat can derail a season. Indeed, Arsenal were at the same juncture - six years without silverware and a perfect opportunity to put it right - when their season imploded in spectacular fashion. The League Cup may be the least of trophies, but unless Sunday goes to plan, Liverpool could see their Champions League chase and FA Cup aspirations take a severe blow.
The nature of success is that it breeds confidence, while conversely a shock defeat can lead to all kinds of pain. Arsenal were second in the Premier League - just four points behind Manchester United and six ahead of Man City - on the day of their last-gasp loss to Birmingham in 2011. The butterfly effect of that clusterf*ck from Szczesny and Koscielny saw the Gunners sink to fourth, picking up just 12 points from a remaining 33, along with untimely exits in both the Champions League and FA Cup.
Heeding this warning, you'd hope Liverpool are focused on the job in hand - beating Cardiff by any means and lifting the three-handled jug at Wembley. But listening to Steven Gerrard this week, it sounds as though their sights may be elsewhere. Gerrard said, "I'm hoping this is just the beginning for us. It would be stupid to win the Carling Cup and then rest on our laurels. This is an important Cup for us but there are other big prizes we want to strive for." The quotes smack more of foolishness than confidence.
It's never good to speak of a final in a way which suggests success is a certainty, but considering the infatuation with Liverpool's costly recruits, the club must be desperate to avoid failure on Sunday. People will be queuing up to have their view of Liverpool as an average team confirmed and Monday morning will be met with talks of a crisis unless the Reds win at Wembley.
The sense of occasion may not compare to previous achievements, but Liverpool's success has always come from a winning mentality and unyielding competitiveness; during the glory years of the 1980s the club won the League Cup a record four times in a row. A win against Cardiff is not the ultimate objective, but it will certainly nurture optimism and the chance for something more beautiful to bloom.
As Gerrard said, "I honestly believe winning this Cup will be the catalyst for a successful period for the club. It will certainly give us the belief and confidence to deliver more."
What seems to be missing from Gerrard's quotes is the word 'if'. Perhaps the alternative to victory and its implications are too disconcerting.
Matthew Stanger - tell him he's wrong on Twitter.
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